Ethiopia-TPLF Tensions Escalate as Armed Clashes Resume Along Tigray Border

The guns that fell mostly silent along Tigray's contested borders following the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement have started firing again — and the casualty counts are rising in ways that are ringing alarm bells at the African Union and at the UN Security Council.

Sporadic armed clashes between the Ethiopian National Defence Force and fighters loyal to a faction of the Tigray People's Liberation Front have been reported along the Tigray-Amhara border for the past four weeks. ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, has recorded 23 significant armed events in the area since August 1 — a pace that, if sustained, would exceed the conflict intensity of any comparable period since the ceasefire.

At the root of the current tensions is a dispute within the TPLF itself. A faction that rejected the post-war settlement struck with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been rebuilding its military capacity in the mountainous terrain of western Tigray, drawing on resentment among fighters who believe the Pretoria deal gave away too much.

For Kenya, the conflict has immediate relevance. Addis Ababa is a critical trade partner and the headquarters of the African Union. Kenyan trucks transporting goods through the Northern Corridor regularly traverse Ethiopian territory. And any major conflict in Ethiopia generates refugee flows that have historically included movements toward Kenya's northern border regions.

Foreign affairs CS Musalia Mudavadi confirmed this week that Kenya is monitoring the situation closely and has offered to facilitate any renewed dialogue. "Kenya has been a constructive voice for peace in the Horn. We remain available," he said.

Humanitarian organisations with operations in Tigray are already pre-positioning emergency supplies in anticipation of possible population displacement, while air routes through Axum and Mekelle airports have been temporarily suspended by Ethiopian Airlines citing security concerns.