Ruto Marks Four Years in Office as 76% of Kenyans Say Country on Wrong Path

Four years after walking out of Kasarani arena as Kenya's fifth president, William Samoei Ruto finds himself navigating the sharpest public disapproval of his tenure. A TIFA Research poll published on September 9, 2026, shows 76 percent of Kenyans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction — a figure that has climbed steadily through 2026 and represents the highest reading in TIFA's series.

Speaking at a series of Nyanza rallies on the eve of his fourth anniversary, Ruto pushed back with characteristic confidence. "We have delivered on roads, housing, markets, education and many others. Let my opponents show Kenyans one agenda — just one," he said to cheering crowds in Migori, where residents had lined the streets since early morning.

But the numbers tell a more complicated story. The poll found that more than half of Kenyans also oppose the Broad-Based Government arrangement he struck with ODM's Oburu Oginga after sidelining Raila Odinga's allies. Critics say the deal bought him legislative peace at the cost of political coherence.

The President's supporters point to measurable wins: a 300-kilometre SGR extension under active construction, the Affordable Housing Programme having delivered over 12,000 units, and the Hustler Fund reaching a repayment rate that Finance CS Cooperatives Director General Oparanya hailed as "a revelation for informal credit." Fuel prices have also been held stable into the September–October cycle by EPRA, sparing commuters from fresh pump shocks.

Yet the economy continues to squeeze ordinary Kenyans. Mama mboga traders across Nairobi's Gikomba, Kawangware and Kangemi markets describe rising wholesale costs that do not yield to government stabilisation pledges. Digital lending has surged — 300 platforms now operate in the market — but much of the borrowing goes toward daily consumption rather than investment.

Political analysts reading the poll warn that 2027 is now a live contest in ways Ruto's allies had not anticipated. "The opposition doesn't need to coalesce perfectly to beat him. They just need the discontent to crystallise around one candidate by nomination day," said University of Nairobi political scientist Dr Kamau Weru.

Opposition figures were predictably buoyant. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, whose Linda Mwananchi movement marched through the capital on Sunday, declared: "Four years and the people's verdict is clear. It is time for a new chapter." The movement was blocked from entering the CBD by police citing security concerns but regrouped at Jacaranda grounds where thousands turned up.

Ruto, for his part, appeared unbothered. "Kenyans will shock you, my friends," he told a gathering in Migori, warning opponents not to mistake noise for numbers.